REAL ESTATE
ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast – Spring 2025
Respondents to the Spring 2025 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast survey downgraded their projections relative to the Fall 2024 survey to reflect a softer near-term economic outlook with U.S. economic metrics below historical averages. Real estate market projections are also less optimistic in the near-term relative to Fall 2024 and many, although not all, are below their historic averages. Still, almost all metrics show steady improvement over the forecast period with a stronger mix of metrics moving above their long-term averages by 2027.
https://knowledge.uli.org/en/reports/research-reports/2025/uli-real-estate-economic-forecast-spring-2025
Office to Anything: More Cities Offer Conversion Incentives
By some estimates, around 15 percent of U.S. offices are suitable for conversion. Whereas the first batch of post-pandemic initiatives was all about office-to-residential conversions, some cities now want to encourage conversions into a broader mix of property types. After all, people don’t like renting apartments in areas with paltry retail and dining options. A diversity of property types—hotels, retail, even self-storage—make formerly office-centric districts economically viable in the long term. Leaning into diversification in early 2025, Washington D.C. introduced its Office to Anything program, which focuses entirely on boosting nonresidential office conversions downtown. The city is incentivizing housing conversions with a separate program, Housing in Downtown, which launched in 2024.
https://urbanland.uli.org/issues-trends/cities-launch-office-to-anything-conversion-incentives
The 20 Cities Attracting the Most Newcomers
In the United States, rather than flocking to large, top-tier cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, new residents are gravitating toward smaller or mid-sized cities — especially those in the rapidly growing Sun Belt region, such as Tampa and Raleigh. While several large U.S. cities did make the list, strikingly, none of the country’s five most populous cities appear here. In fact, a plurality of survey respondents say their ideal next home would be in a city smaller than the one they currently live in. Cities outside the U.S. tend to attract a smaller percentage of new residents than their American counterparts. This could be due to the relative ease of internal movement in the United States, where borders between states are fully open, language barriers are limited, and opportunities for relocation are abundant.
https://www.gensler.com/blog/20-cities-attracting-the-most-newcomers
Colorado home insurance rates soar, outpacing all other states, study finds
Online lending marketplace LendingTree reported findings this week that home insurance rates nationwide have climbed 40.4% from 2019 through 2024, but the rates climbed even faster for Colorado residents. In Colorado, rates jumped by 76.6% over those five years. The increase made Colorado No. 1 for rising home insurance rates, followed by Nebraska, Utah, Arizona and Minnesota, LendingTree said. LendingTree found the average cost of home insurance in Colorado is about $4,400 per year, which is 60.2% higher than the U.S. average of $2,800 per year. By those numbers, Colorado is No. 6 in the nation for annual home insurance cost.
https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2025/05/30/report-colorado-home-insurance-rates-soar.html
Many Cities Go All In on Conversions. Is it Working?
Last year, the number of new residential units resulting from office building conversions nearly doubled from the previous year, according to RentCafe. In 2025, a record 70,700 of these units are expected to come online. Those numbers are anticipated to continue growing as more cities and states offer tools to incentivize developers to create new uses for outdated and vacant office space. These tools include tax abatements, direct subsidies, special financing districts, historic tax credits, streamlined approvals and zoning changes. Conversion to much-needed housing is a top priority for municpalities, and nearly three-quarters of all office conversions underway in the U.S. involve multifamily, according to Jessica Morin, Americas head of research for CBRE.
https://www.multihousingnews.com/many-cities-go-all-in-on-conversions-is-it-working/
Sellers outnumber prospective homebuyers as high prices and mortgage rates skew the housing market
The lopsided balance between buyers and sellers is reflected in home sales, which remain in a slump going back to 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from the rock-bottom lows they reached during the pandemic. Last year, sales of previously occupied U.S. homes sank to their lowest level in nearly 30 years. Sales fell last month to the slowest pace for the month of April going back to 2009. Sellers began outnumbering buyers in November 2023, when the average rate on a 30-year mortgage climbed to a 23-year high of nearly 8%, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. The average rate reached 6.89% this week, its highest level since early February. All told, there were 1.9 million sellers and 1.5 million prospective homebuyers in April, or 490,041 fewer people in the market for a home relative to sellers. A year ago, there were 6.5% more sellers than buyers. Two years ago, buyers outnumbered sellers by 5.3%.
https://apnews.com/article/housing-market-real-estate-affordability-mortgage-rates-a8fad991e022d541c1ac4d95f78ccffa
Jared Polis vetoes bill that would have restricted the use of rent-setting software, like RealPage
Rent-setting algorithms have become a target of consumer protection advocates in recent years, who say software used by companies like RealPage effectively enables landlords to collude and drive up the cost of housing. House Bill 1004 passed the legislature along party lines. A similar measure died at the Capitol last year.
In his veto letter, Polis said he agreed with the intent of the bill, writing that “collusion between landlords for purposes of artificially constraining rental supply and increasing costs on renters is wrong.” But, he said, such practices are already illegal under Colorado’s Antitrust Act, and “violators should be held accountable” under existing law.
https://www.cpr.org/2025/05/29/polis-vetos-rent-algorithm-bill-realpage/
AI Exhibits Racial Bias in Mortgage Underwriting Decisions
“It’s somewhat surprising to see racial bias, given the efforts LLM creators take to reduce bias overall combined with the large amount of regulations relating to fair lending,” Bowen said, noting that the training data of these models almost certainly includes federal regulations prohibiting the use of race as a factor in making lending decisions. But even more surprising was the ability to remove persistent bias in results with a simple solution—instructing the LLM to use no bias in making decisions. When the LLMs were instructed to ignore race in their decision-making, the racial bias virtually disappeared.
https://news.lehigh.edu/ai-exhibits-racial-bias-in-mortgage-underwriting-decisions
HB 25-1272: What Colorado Developers Need to Know About the State’s New Construction Defect Law
The Multifamily Construction Incentive Program (the “Incentive Program”) is the centerpiece of HB 25-1272; it aims to offer builders a predictable litigation environment in exchange for heightened construction oversight and consumer protections. This alert outlines the Incentive Program and other general changes to the construction defect liability landscape.
https://www.ottenjohnson.com/news/hb-25-1272-what-colorado-developers-need-to-know-about-the-states-new-construction-defect-law/
AFFORDABLE HOUSING
UL10: Ten Affordable Housing Developments
The following 10 projects showcase a wide range of solutions to tackle the housing affordability crisis. They comprise adaptive uses of a mill, a hotel, an industrial building, and a furniture store; a six-story, 85-unit residential building that doesn’t need corridors; low-income senior housing; and modular and Passive House–certified structures.
https://urbanland.uli.org/design-planning/ul10-ten-affordable-housing-developments
Sears Kits Built Many Homes in the Rural Midwest
In its heyday, many rural shoppers relied on the Sears mail order to purchase everything from pins to pants. The convenience was most important to residents of rural and suburban areas where the nearest stores had limited inventory. They also turned to retailers like Sears and other kit home companies like Montgomery Ward and the Aladdin Company to build their family home. Between 1908 and 1942, Sears sold some 70,000 customizable home kits across the country through the company’s Modern Home catalog, according to the Chicago Architectural Center. Kit-related catalog entries featured a sketch of the house, a floor plan, and a basic cost that ranged from $360 to more than $2,000. All the kits included at least two bedrooms, a kitchen, a living room, a dining room, and a front porch. Most were located in the Midwest, including Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri, and almost all of them were located in rural or suburban areas.
https://dailyyonder.com/sears-kits-built-many-homes-in-the-rural-midwest/2025/05/22/
America’s Housing Supply Problem: The Closing of the Suburban Frontier?
If the U.S. housing stock had expanded at the same rate from 2000-2020 as it did from 1980-2000, there would be 15 million more housing units. This paper analyzes the decline of America’s new housing supply, focusing on large sunbelt markets such as Atlanta, Dallas, Miami and Phoenix that were once building superstars. New housing growth rates have decreased and converged across these and many other metros, and prices have risen most where new supply has fallen the most. A model illustrates that structural estimation of long-term supply elasticity is difficult because variables that make places more attractive are likely to change neighborhood composition, which itself is likely to influence permitting.
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/americas-housing-supply-problem-the-closing-of-the-suburban-frontier/
REAL ESTATE AND MOBILITY
Unlocking the benefits of transit-oriented development
Transit increases the value of everything close to it, yet in most cases, that new value accrues to property owners, developers, or is generally just lost. We need to change that. We can start by prioritizing funding for the transit projects that maximize the value created by transit, and use some of that value to help pay for transit operations and improvements. And with the limited federal transit funding available, we should reward agencies that incentivize new mixed-use development around their stations that provide more housing and exciting new destinations to existing riders—and bring new riders into the system.
https://t4america.org/2025/06/13/unlocking-the-benefits-of-transit-oriented-development/
Building Housing in Walkable Neighborhoods: Are U.S. Cities and States Making Progress?
Across the United States, much of the housing found in lower-VMT [vehicle miles traveled] neighborhoods was built before 1940. Sprawling, car-oriented development patterns were more prevalent between 1971 and 2010, with most housing built in low-density neighborhoods, leading to continued higher VMT today. Between 2011 and 2019, however, the average VMT of new housing dropped, as development in higher-VMT neighborhoods declined by 59 percent relative to 2001–2010. Even as new housing between 2011 and 2019 tended to be built in lower-VMT neighborhoods, the absolute number of these homes built declined after 2010, exacerbating the housing shortage and affordability crisis. These findings underscore previous research identifying a dichotomy between mostly slow-growth urban cores and outwardly expanding suburbs in post-war patterns of US development.
https://ternercenter.berkeley.edu/blog/building-housing-in-walkable-neighborhoods-are-u-s-cities-and-states-making-progress/
Gas Stations Are Adding E.V. Chargers and Reasons to Wait Around
As battery-powered cars become more common on roadways, more gas stations are installing chargers alongside old-fashioned pumps. But E.V. charging takes time, so gas station operators are turning their stores into shopping centers where people can spend time — and money — while they wait for cars to charge.
Doing so often means supersizing the business. Buc-ee’s, which has 51 locations primarily in the South and is working with Mercedes-Benz to offer E.V. charging, has stations as big as 75,000 square feet. “What you are seeing is retailers preparing for what is to come,” said Kevin Hart, the chief sales officer at Upside, which works with retailers, including convenience stores and gas stations, to offer customers rewards on their purchases. “The last thing they want is you coming, plugging in your car to an E.V. charging station and sitting in your car, so they have to create a shopping experience,” Mr. Hart said. “That is not how they thought 15 years ago.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/08/business/gas-station-expansion-evs.html
MOBILITY
Colorado Officials Plan Denver-Fort Collins Rail Service by 2029
The service would initially run three times a day between Denver and Fort Collins, with potential stops in Westminster, Broomfield, Louisville, Boulder, Longmont and Loveland. The total price tag, including operating costs and debt payments for projected capital expenditures, is estimated at $83 million a year beginning in 2029, and about half that total would be covered by dedicated revenue from the state’s new fees on rental cars and oil and gas production. RTD sales tax revenue could cover the other half, state officials said.
https://www.planetizen.com/news/2025/05/135127-colorado-officials-p-lan-denver-fort-collins-rail-service-2029
Time to ban right turns on red lights in cities across North America
The practice of making right turns on red lights was not always legal across the United States. It was only in the 1970s that the federal government encouraged states to allow this, primarily as an energy-conservation measure during the oil crisis. However, research from 1984 found that at intersections allowing right turns on red, crashes increased by 23%, pedestrian crashes went up by 60%, and cyclist crashes doubled.
https://momentummag.com/is-now-is-the-time-to-ban-right-turns-on-red-lights-in-cities-across-north-america/
US states with best EV infrastructure revealed
The US currently has more than 192,000 public charging ports, with around 1,000 added every week, according to the Department of transportation. While that might sound impressive, it falls short of national goals. The White House previously announced a target of 500,000 chargers by 2026, which is out of reach at this point. Looking forward, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory projects the need for more than two million chargers by 2030, which may seem like a huge number. However, given how companies like BYD are developing EVs so affordable, it’s clear the demand is there.
https://supercarblondie.com/us-states-with-best-ev-infrastructure-revealed/
Decoding mobility hubs: Opportunities and risks underpinning their introduction for the contexts of transport and the wider society
Still in their infancy as a brand, mobility hubs promise to be visible, accessible, and integration-enabling spaces, where public transit, shared mobility, micromobility and active travel modes co-exist harmoniously alongside infrastructure facilities like charging and sharing stations. Yet, there are still genuine question marks around their implementation, functionality, urban fit and use. Can mobility hubs create opportunities to address effectively transport and even wider societal challenges? Are there any risks or potential side-effects when adopting them?
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692325001875
It looks like a golf cart, maxes out at 25 mph and could be your next city car
Although minicars are already a staple in Europe and Asia, most Americans have never heard of them. Safety concerns, inadequate infrastructure and depressingly few choices beyond glorified golf carts have steered people away. But change is coming. Nearly all 50 states now allow them, said Daniel Sperling, director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California at Davis. On a recent trip to Florida, I saw them everywhere, and some cities are passing laws to encourage them. A wave of new designs is about to hit the market on two, three and four wheels — including one from a spin-off of Rivian, the electric truck maker.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/06/10/low-speed-vehicle-lsv/
Why So Many Speed Limits Just Don’t Work
Why don’t the drivers in your town ever seem to follow the posted speed limit, unless a police officer is actively pointing a radar gun at them — and sometimes, not even then? Virginia-based journalist/YouTuber Justine Underhill has a great explainer on the importance of design speed, and what it will take to get motorists to hit the brakes.
https://usa.streetsblog.org/2025/06/13/friday-video-why-so-many-speed-limits-just-dont-work
This EV battery fully recharges in just 18 seconds — and it just got the green light for mass production
A British firm has received approval to mass-produce an ultra-high-power-density electric vehicle (EV) battery that can be fully recharged in just 18 seconds. The RML Group was granted Conformity of Production certification for its VarEVolt battery on June 2. This government approval signifies that the firm can mass-produce the powerful batteries for EV manufacturers.
https://www.livescience.com/technology/electric-vehicles/ev-battery-that-recharges-in-just-18-seconds-green-lit-for-mass-production
